نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکترا، دوره حرفهای مدیریت کسب و کار (DBA)، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران.
2 دکترا، گروه علوم سیاسی، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران.
3 دانشجو دکترا، گروه مدیریت مالی، واحد شهر قدس، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، شهر قدس، تهران، ایران.
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
The strategic South Caucasus region is undergoing significant geopolitical transformations, notably with the proposed Zangezur transit corridor. This study focuses on Iran’s national interests and the role of regional and extra-regional actors—including Turkey, Armenia, Russia, and the United States—in assessing the corridor’s geopolitical and economic impacts. The research is exploratory–explanatory, employing a sequential mixed-methods design (qualitative → quantitative). In the first phase, content analysis of political documents and statements identified key variables; these were then categorized using a SWOT matrix to classify internal and external factors. Finally, the results served as inputs for scenario analysis to simulate potential financial and geopolitical outcomes. Findings show that, in the pessimistic scenario, full implementation of the corridor could divert regional transit flows, causing an estimated annual net loss of USD 45 million for Iran and raising its geopolitical risk index (five-level scale designed within this study) to a critical level (5/5). In contrast, under an active participation scenario, Iran could maintain or increase its transit volume, achieving an annual net profit of USD 105 million with a low risk level (2/5). The study concludes that the Zangezur corridor does not represent an inevitable threat; rather, transforming it into an opportunity requires a dual proactive strategy: (1) assertive diplomacy to institutionalize Iran’s role in the emerging transit order, and (2) targeted investment to enhance border infrastructure and develop alternative routes such as the Aras corridor.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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