نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکترا، دوره حرفه‌ای مدیریت کسب و کار (DBA)، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران.
2 دکترا، گروه علوم سیاسی، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران.
3 دانشجو دکترا، گروه مدیریت مالی، واحد شهر قدس، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، شهر قدس، ایران.
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
The strategically important South Caucasus region is undergoing profound geopolitical transformations, one of the most significant of which is the proposed Zangezur Transit Corridor. This study examines the geopolitical and economic implications of the corridor, with particular emphasis on Iran’s national interests and the roles of regional and extra-regional actors, including Türkiye, Armenia, Russia, and the United States. The study adopts an exploratory-explanatory research design using a sequential mixed-methods approach (qualitative-quantitative). In the first phase, content analysis of political documents and official statements was conducted to identify key variables. The resulting variables were then organized into a SWOT matrix to identify and classify internal and external factors. In the final phase, the findings from these analyses were used as inputs for scenario analysis to simulate potential future financial and geopolitical outcomes.
The findings indicate that, under the most pessimistic scenario, full implementation of the Zangezur Corridor could divert transit traffic away from Iran, resulting in an estimated annual net loss of approximately USD 45 million and increasing Iran’s geopolitical risk index to a critical level (5 out of 5) on the five-point scale developed in this study. In contrast, under an active-participation scenario, Iran could maintain or even increase its transit volume, potentially generating an estimated annual net gain of USD 105 million while maintaining a low level of geopolitical risk (2 out of 5). The findings suggest that the Zangezur Corridor does not constitute an inevitable threat to Iran; rather, its potential implications depend substantially on Iran’s strategic response. Transforming potential risks into economic opportunities would require a proactive two-pronged strategy: first, proactive diplomacy aimed at institutionalizing Iran’s role in the emerging regional transit framework and securing an appropriate share of transit flows; and second, targeted investment in border infrastructure and alternative routes, such as the Aras Corridor.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
)