نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکترا، گروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران.
2 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد، گروه اقتصاد انرژی، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.
3 دانشیار، گروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه ارومیه، ایران.
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Given the growing importance of energy security in sustaining macroeconomic stability and ensuring resilient energy supply systems, identifying the key uncertainty-driven risks has become crucial, particularly for energy-dependent economies. This study addresses an existing gap in the literature by empirically examining the impact of two major sources of uncertainty—global economic uncertainty and climate policy uncertainty—on Iran’s energy security over the period 1996–2023. Economic uncertainty is measured using the World Uncertainty Index (WUI), while climate policy uncertainty is captured through the Climate Policy Uncertainty Index. An energy security risk index, constructed from official national energy data, is employed as the proxy for Iran’s energy security. After conducting unit-root and cointegration tests, the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) estimators are applied to identify both long-run and short-run effects.
The findings reveal that higher economic uncertainty exerts a significant negative effect (–1.53) on energy security by reducing investment, increasing supply costs, and undermining system stability. Climate policy uncertainty also exerts a short-run negative effect (–0.12) on energy security, although it may enhance long-term sustainability by encouraging efficiency improvements and energy-transition incentives. The control variables—GDP, trade, and urbanization—also display negative impacts, indicating intensifying demand-side pressures on existing energy infrastructure. The results highlight the need for coordinated economic–climate policy design, a phased approach to energy reforms, and strengthened energy infrastructure to mitigate uncertainty-driven risks.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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