نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسنده
دانشجوی دکترا، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه صنعتی شریف، تهران، ایران.
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسنده [English]
In recent years, the rapid expansion of the cryptocurrency market has significantly increased the role of digital assets in the global economy. Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, beyond their functions as a store of value, investment vehicle, and speculative asset, are also emerging as alternative means of payment alongside or in place of traditional currencies. Given the limited focus in the literature on the payment function of cryptocurrencies, this study examines the short- and long-run effects of Bitcoin on the exchange rate within the framework of complementary or substitutive roles. According to the research hypothesis, since cryptocurrencies are not officially recognized as legal tender in Iran, Bitcoin is expected to have no long-term effect on the exchange rate, although it may exert short-term influence under specific conditions.
To test this hypothesis, the study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach using monthly data. The results indicate that Bitcoin’s price in the fourth lag has a significant positive impact on the exchange rate—specifically, a 1% increase in Bitcoin’s price leads to a 4% increase in the exchange rate after four periods. However, no significant long-run relationship is found. These findings suggest that, while Bitcoin cannot serve as a stable substitute or complement to foreign currencies under current conditions, in the context of economic sanctions, limited and regulated use of cryptocurrencies could be considered a policy tool to enhance economic resilience.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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