نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسنده
دانشجوی دکترا، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه صنعتی شریف، تهران، ایران.
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسنده [English]
In recent years, the rapid growth of the cryptocurrency market worldwide has laid the groundwork for the expanding role of these digital assets in the global economy. Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, in addition to serving functions like a store of value, investment, and speculation, can also act as a payment instrument alongside official currencies or even as a substitute for them. Given the neglect of the payment function of cryptocurrencies in the research literature, this study focuses on Bitcoin to examine its short-run and long-run effects on the exchange rate within the framework of a complementary or substitute approach. Based on the research hypothesis, given that Bitcoin is not recognized as legal tender in Iran, its effect on the exchange rate is expected to be merely short-term and unstable. To test this hypothesis, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method and monthly data have been employed. The findings indicate that the Bitcoin price at the fourth lag has a positive and significant effect on the exchange rate, such that a one percent increase in the Bitcoin price leads to a four percent rise in the exchange rate after four periods. However, no significant long-run relationship was observed.
These results suggest that although Bitcoin does not play a lasting role in determining the exchange rate under normal circumstances, it can be considered by policymakers as a complementary instrument in international payments and for enhancing economic resilience in the context of external pressures such as sanctions.
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