نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکترا، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه ارومیه، آذربایجان غربی، ایران.
2 استاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه ارومیه، آذربایجان غربی، ایران.
3 دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه شهید باهنر، کرمان، ایران.
4 استاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی، تهران، ایران.
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Changes in energy prices have a significant impact on the dynamics of world trade, particularly in the mineral import sector. The objective of the present study is to examine the effects of deregulating energy prices on the import of mineral products, using a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (DCGE) Model. For this purpose, the study focuses on three groups of regions and countries: 1) Iran, 2) major trading partners, and 3) the rest of the world. The analysis is based on data from the GTAP-E database and simulates two scenarios up to the year 2050; (1) a 1. 5% gas price shock and (2) a 2. 5% oil price shock. The simulations were conducted using the GEMPACK and Run Dynam software packages.
The results of the DCGE model indicate that for Iran, the negative impacts inhered in the second scenario (i.e. the oil price shock) is significantly larger than in the first scenario (i.e. the gas price shock). This suggests that oil price fluctuations have a more substantial effect on the import value of mineral products. For major trading partners, oil price fluctuations lead to a more significant and prolonged negative effect on mineral product imports compared to gas price shocks, highlighting the crucial role of oil in the global economic landscape. For other regions, both scenarios initially result in a decrease in mineral product imports. However, while the oil price shock increases volatility and long-term sustainable risks, the gas price shock appears to lead to a more manageable recovery path. These findings underscore the essential role of oil in shaping economic resilience in the mineral import sector. The pronounced effects of oil price fluctuations point to the exigent need for policy interventions in the affected regions. To mitigate the risks associated with oil price volatility, it is recommended that these regions invest in diversifying their energy portfolios, with a greater emphasis on natural gas and renewable energy sources.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
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