1
Assistants Professor, Department of Economics, Payam Noor University, Tehran, Iran.
2
Ph.D., Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Lorestan University, Lorestan, Iran.
Abstract
There has been a seemingly growing and unstoppable trend towards Globalization during the past few decades that has affected various fields. Some believe that globalization can pose a serious threat to world peace. On the other hand, others argue that globalization offers an opportunity for creating a more peaceful world. In this regard, the main purpose of this article is to examine the impact of globalization by analyzing relevant sub-indices including economic, social and political globalization and their relationship with the degree of militarization (considered as a negative indicator of movement towards world peace) in 171 countries around the world, during the 2001-2021 time period. For this purpose, the methodology of this paper relied on drawing on the theoretical literature and applying the panel data method in order to identify and model the factors affecting the movement towards militarization and globalization. The results obtained using the SGMM estimator show that the effect of globalization and all its sub-indices on the Global Militarization index (GMI) is negative and significant. Moreover, among the sub-indicators of globalization, economic globalization had the greatest effect in reducing militarization in countries around the world. Therefore, it can be argued that globalization is not only, not a threat to peace in the world, but furthermore, it helps to facilitate movement towards world peace. Based on other results, it can be argued that improving the level of democracy, improving the functioning of institutions and reducing regional arms competition will have a significant effect on reducing the militarization process, consequently, facilitating movement towards world peace.
خداویسی، حسن؛ گل‌خندان، ابوالقاسم و بابائی آغ‌اسمعیلی، مجید. (1398). تأثیر فساد بر هزینه‌های نظامی در منتخبی از کشورهای درحال‌توسعه. تحقیقات مدلسازی اقتصادی، ۱۰ (۳۶)، 162- 127.
گل‌خندان، ابوالقاسم. (1397). تأثیر دموکراسی بر هزینه‌های نظامی در کشورهای اسلامی: رهیافت اقتصادسنجی فضایی. اقتصاد کاربردی، 8(26)، 61-49.
گل‌خندان، ابوالقاسم. (1398الف). گزیده‌ای از موضوعات در علم اقتصاد دفاع (تقرب تجربی) جلد اول: رقابت تسلیحاتی و عوامل تعیین‌کننده مخارج دفاعی، تهران: انتشارات نارون دانش.
گل‌خندان، ابوالقاسم. (1402). شناسایی تعیین‌کنندگان قوی ریسک وقوع جنگ داخلی به کمک رویکرد بیزی. مطالعات جنگ، 5 (16)، 91-57.
گل‌خندان، ابوالقاسم؛ گل‌خندان، داود و خوانساری، مجتبی. (1393). آیا جهانی‌شدن منجر به نابرابری درآمد می‌شود؟ مطالعه موردی اقتصاد ایران با معرفی شاخص جدید و جامع جهانی‌شدن KOF، تحقیقات توسعه اقتصادی، 14، 130-99.
گل‌خندان، ابوالقاسم و محمدیان‌منصور، صاحبه. (1401). تأثیر تجارت تسلیحات بر مخارج دفاعی با توجه به سطح دموکراسی: مدل رگرسیون انتقال ملایم پانلی (PSTR). اقتصاد و تجارت نوین، 17 (4)، 142-107.
گل‌خندان ابوالقاسم و محمدیان‌منصور، صاحبه. (1400). رابطه انواع منابع طبیعی و ریسک وقوع درگیری داخلی در کشورهای منطقه MENAP در چارچوب نفرین سیاسی منابع. تحقیقات مدلسازی اقتصادی، ۱۲ (۴۶)، 211-256.
محمدیان‌منصور، صاحبه و گل‌خندان ابوالقاسم. (1398). شناسایی عوامل اصلی تعیین‌کننده بودجه دفاعی در ایران به کمک رهیافت بیزی. سیاست‌های مالی و اقتصادی، ۸ (۳۲)، ۱۶۱-۱۸۹.
Arellano, M. & Bond, S. (1991). Some test of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and application to employment equations. Review of Economic Studies, 58, 277-297.
Baltagi, B. (2005). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, 3rd. Edition. McGraw-Hill.
Bechtel, G. (2014). Does globalization mitigate income inequality? Journal of Data Science, 12 (1), 197-215.
Blundell, R. & Bond, S. (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of Econometrics, 87, 115-143.
Brauner, J. (2015). Military spending and Defense and Peace Economics, 26 (4), 409-423.
Chisadza, C. & Bittencourt, M. (2016). Globalisation and conflict: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa, Working Papers 201640, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
Compton, R. & Paterson, B. (2016). Military spending and growth: The role of institutions. Defence and Peace Economics, 27, 301-322.
Da Silva, D. L. (2022). Political accountability and military spending. Defense and Peace Economics, 34 (5), 563-580.
Degger, S. (1986). Economic development and defense expenditure, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 179 -196.
Dos Santos, T. (1970). The structure of dependence. Econ. Rev. 60(2), 231-236.
Dreher, A., Gaston, N., & Martens, P. (2008). Measuring globalization: Gauging its consequences. Springer Science & Business Media.
Dunne, J. P. & Perlo-Freeman, S. (2003). The demand for military spending in developing countries. International Review of Applied Economics, 17 (1), 23-48.
Dunne, J. P. & Mohammed, N. A. (1995). Military spending in Sub-Saharan Africa: Some evidence for 1967–85. Journal of Peace Research, 32 (3), 331-343.
Fonfría, A. & Marín, R. (2012). Determinants of the demand for defence expenditure in the NATO countries. Journal ofthe Higher School of National Defense Studies, 9-30.
George J. & Sandler T. (2018). Demand for military spending in NATO, 1968-2015: A spatial panel approach. European Journal of Political Economy, 53, 222-236.
Ghazalian, P. L & Hammoud, M. (2020). The peace level of nations: An empirical investigation into the determining factors. Defence and Peace Economics, 32 (5), 509-532.
Gilpin, R. (1981).War and change in world politics. Cambridge University Press, New York.
Grebe, J. (2011). The Global Militarization Index (GMI). Bonn International Centre for Conversion (BICC). Occasional Paper, 7, 1-18.
Hirschman, A. O. (1980). National power and the structure of foreign Trade. University of California Press, Reprint, Berkeley.
Hwang, I. (2012). The impacts of globalization on internal conflict. EPIK Journals,3 (3).
Irandoust, M. (2018). Militarism and globalization: Is there an empirical link? Quality & Quantity, 52 (3), 1349-1369.
Jajkowicz, O. & Drobiszová, A. (2015). The effect of corruption on government expenditure allocation in OECD countries, Act Universities Agriculture ET Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, 63 (4), 1251-1259.
Kao, C. (1999). Spurious regression and residual-based tests for co-integration in panel data. Journal of Econometrics, 90(1), 1-44.
Killelea, S. (2020). Peace in the age of chaos: the best solution for a sustainable future. New South Wales: One Tree Films.
Kollias, C. & Paleologou. S. M. (2016). the globalization and peace nexus: Findings using two composite indices. Social Indicators Research, 1-15.
Levy, J. S. (1989). The causes of war: a review of theories and evidence. In: Tetlock, P.E., Husbands, J.L., Jervis, , Stern, P.C., Tilly, C. (eds.) Behavior, Society, and Nuclear War, 1, 209-313.
Liberman, P. (1996). Does conquest pay? The exploitation of occupied industrial societies. Princeton University Press, Princeton.
Mansfield, E. D., & Pollins, B. M. (2003). Interdependence and conflict: An introduction. Economic interdependence and international conflict: new perspectives on an enduring debate, 1-30.
Mearsheimer, J. J. (1990). Back to the future: instability in Europe after the cold war. Secur, 15, 5-56.
Morrow, J. D. (2000). The ongoing game-theoretic revolution. Handbook of War Studies, 2, 164-192.
Paul, T. V. & Ripsman. N. M. (2004). Under pressure? Globalisation and the national Security state. Journal of International Studies, 33 (2), 355-380.
Plümper T. & Neumayer E. (2015). Free-Riding in Alliances: Testing an Old Theory with a New Method (June 7, 2013). Conflict Management and Peace Science, 32 (3), 247-268.
Richardson, L. F. (1960). Arms and Insecurity: A Mathematical Study of Causes and Origins of War. Pittsburgh: Boxwood Press.
Rodrik, D. (2008). One economics, many recipes: Globalization, institutions, and economic growth. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Rosecrance, R. (1986). The rise of the trading state: Commerce and conquest in the modern world. Free Press, New York.
Rosh, R. (1988). Third world militarization: Security webs and the states they ensnare. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 32 (4), 671698.
Sarwar, S. & Idrees, A. S. (2022). Impact of military expenditures on the globalization process: A spatial econometric analysis for African Region. Journal of Asian and African Studies, 57 (2), 1-11.
Solarin, S. A. (2017). Determinants of military expenditure and the role of globalization in a cross-country analysis. Defence and Peace Economics, 29 (7), 853-870.
Staples, S. (2000). The relationship between globalization and militarism. Social Justice, 27 (4), 18-22.
Viner, J. (1951). International Economics. Free Press, Glencoe.
Xiaoxin, Y. & Bo, C. (2021). Defense burden and the effect of others:
From neighbors to allies. Defence and Peace Economics, 32(8), 927-940.
Yalta, A. T., & Yalta, A. Y. (2022). The Determinants of Defense Spending in the Gulf Region. Defence and Peace Economics, 33(8), 980-992.
Mohamadian Mansour, S. & Golkhandan, A. (2024). Globalization; an Opportunity or a Threat towards World Peace? (An Empirical Analysis Using the GMM Method). اقتصاد دفاع و توسعه پایدار, 9(33), 63–85.
MLA
Mohamadian Mansour, S., & Golkhandan, A. "Globalization; an Opportunity or a Threat towards World Peace? (An Empirical Analysis Using the GMM Method)", اقتصاد دفاع و توسعه پایدار, 9, 33, 2024, 63–85.
HARVARD
Mohamadian Mansour, S., & Golkhandan, A. (2024). 'Globalization; an Opportunity or a Threat towards World Peace? (An Empirical Analysis Using the GMM Method)', اقتصاد دفاع و توسعه پایدار, 9(33), pp. 63–85.
CHICAGO
Mohamadian Mansour, S. & Golkhandan, A., "Globalization; an Opportunity or a Threat towards World Peace? (An Empirical Analysis Using the GMM Method)." اقتصاد دفاع و توسعه پایدار, 9 33 (2024): 63–85,
VANCOUVER
Mohamadian Mansour S., Golkhandan A. Globalization; an Opportunity or a Threat towards World Peace? (An Empirical Analysis Using the GMM Method). Defense Economics and Sustainable Development. 2024;9(33):63–85 (In Persian).
