Forecasting the future of Iran’s oil and gas export after the Russia-Ukraine war, applying Neural Networks

Safiyari, Mohammad Hossein; Abdi, Sadegh

Forecasting the future of Iran’s oil and gas export after the Russia-Ukraine war, applying Neural Networks

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

¹ M.A., Department of Economics, Faculty of Management, Economics and Progress Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran.

² Ph.D., Department of Oil and Gas Law, Faculty of Law and Political Science, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

Abstract

Today, all aspects of human life are influenced by various forms of energy, especially oil and gas. So, competition among countries in the field of energy has reached its highest level. One of the significant and influential countries in this field is Russia. Examining the details of Russia's energy economy and the extent of their oil and gas trade can be useful for increasing Iran’s share in the energy market. Given the recent war between Russia and Ukraine, this matter has become even more crucial. Russia supplied a significant portion of the energy to the European Union, especially in the form of gas. Consequently, the war has brought about changes in this trade. This research explores various aspects of Russia's energy and presents the reasons for the importance of this country. Then, it thoroughly examines the different aspects of the Russia-Ukraine war, the ongoing results, and potential future effects.
This research utilizes an artificial intelligence model, Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) to predict the future of Iran's oil and gas exports, aiming to enhance the role of Iran in the world energy market. The applied data, has been collected on a season basis from 1990 to 2022. The findings indicate that the MLP model has accurately predicted the future of Iran's exports. Furthermore, the results of MLP prediction presents that the amount of Iran’s oil export will increase in the near future, but the amount of Gas export will decrease in the next three years.

Keywords