Examining the Factors affecting the Diversification of Export Goods and Destinations with an emphasis on the Policies of Economic Resilience

Samsami, Hossein; Mozafari Khalaf  Badam, Ghasem

Examining the Factors affecting the Diversification of Export Goods and Destinations with an emphasis on the Policies of Economic Resilience

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

¹ Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran.

² M.A., Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran.

Abstract

In recent years, with the intensification of Western sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran which aim to end Iran's peaceful nuclear program, the term " Economic Resilience " has been the subject of discussion within the Iranian economic literature. One of the most important policies of the economic resilience concerns the diversification of export products and destinations through the provision of cohesive support for the export of goods and services (based on their added value) with the aim of achieving a net positive currency gain. This subject is also of interest within economic development literature with respect to debates surrounding the degree of diversity and specialization in the structure of production and trade. In line with these discussions, the objective of the present study is to examine the factors affecting the diversification of export goods and destinations, in accordance with economy resilience policies. To achieve this aim, this study examines the aforementioned factors during the period time 1350-1394 using the system of simultaneous equations and the GMM method. To investigate the effect of macroeconomic instability on export diversification, the paper constructs an index of exchange rate and inflation factors it into the model based on ARCH and GARCH patterns.
The results of this study indicate that macroeconomic instability and gross domestic product have respectively, positive, and negative effects on the diversification of export goods and destinations. Furthermore, the paper finds that the governance of organizational institutions has a negative effect on diversification, while sanctions have a positive effect on diversification of export goods and destinations. The paper concludes with finding that sanctions and instability of the macroeconomic variables have created bottlenecks for production and increased restrictions which has in turn led to the diversification of export goods and destinations of Iran.

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