The future study of energy consumption affected by climate change in Iran and its economic and security consequences for the Islamic Republic of Iran

Taherifard Hanjani, Ali; Mirhashemi Dehnavi, Seyyed Mohammad

The future study of energy consumption affected by climate change in Iran and its economic and security consequences for the Islamic Republic of Iran

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

¹ Ph.D. in Economics, Faculty of Administrative and Economic Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad. Razavi Khorasan, Iran.

² Ph.D. in Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management and Social Sciences, Shiraz University, Fars, Iran.

Abstract

Many researchers believe that climate change is affected by human activities and consumption of different types of energy; so the effect of energy consumption on climate change interpret as greenhouse effect; But the effect of climate change on energy consumption in general and on the composition of energy consumption has recently been considered in many studies. The purpose of this paper is future study of energy consumption with respect to climate change in Iran. In this study, in order to achieve the goals, in this paper, system dynamic modeling and also experts analysis in the form of Delphi technique were used. The results of system dynamics simulation in Iran showed that the simulation results of the system dynamics model could simulate the values of the variables of this model and on the other hand with the change of oil and gas consumption in the future in Iran will decrease and electricity consumption will increase. Therefore, policymakers must to think about electricity supply in the future through the import or production of electricity to avoid security challenges.

Keywords