Socio-Economic Determinants of Terrorism in the World during the Years 2004-2018

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 PhD in Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Lorestan University, Khorramabad, Iran.

2 M.A in Economics, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, Shahid Ferdowsi University, Khorasan Razavi, Iran.

Abstract

Today, one of the most important issues that threatens international peace and security is that of terrorism. Since 2004, the number of terrorist incidents in the world has increased dramatically and has remained high ever since. Therefore, identifying the factors affecting terrorism is of particular importance. Some of these factors are of socio-economic (and demographic) type. Accordingly, in this study, using information from 136 countries during the years 2004-2018 and employing the panel data method, socio-economic (and demographic) factors affecting the terrorist incidents in the world are identified and their statistical significance were investigated. The results of this study using the System Generalized Method of Moment (SGMM) are: (a)- Per capita income has a non-linear and inverted U-shaped effect on terrorism; which shows that the terrorist incidents is higher in middle-income countries than in low- and high-income countries. (b)- Inflation, income inequality and level of education have a positive and significant effect and investment. Furthermore, the degree of trade openness have a significant and negative effect on the terrorist incidents. (c) The population has a positive and significant effect on the terrorism; this means that terrorist incidents are more common in populous countries. Among other socio-economic (and demographic) variables, the dummy variable of Muslim countries has a positive and significant effect, and unemployment and urbanization have an insignificant effect on the terrorist incidents.

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