Futurology of renewable energy in order to analyze and propose appropriate strategies to improve energy security of Iran

Shirijian, Mohammad; Seraj, Hamidreza

Futurology of renewable energy in order to analyze and propose appropriate strategies to improve energy security of Iran

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

¹ PhD in International Oil and Gas Contracts Management, Faculty of Islamic Studies and Economics, Imam Sadegh (AS) University, Tehran, Iran.

² MSc. in Energy Systems Engineering, Faculty of Industrial Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

Abstract

Recently the improvement of new energy technologies, the importance of environmental considerations, the stimulation of economy and creation of new industries and jobs, have led to the fact that industrialized and developing countries, increase the share of these resources in their development plans. Meanwhile, Iran, as a country with the world’s largest total oil and gas resources, should be more aware of trends in the energy sector and the penetration of renewables in the market; to promote its energy security and subsequent national security.
Therefore, this research aims to investigate the role of renewables in the global energy market and provide strategies in order to improve the energy security of Iran; relying on principles of futurology, scenario-based planning, and applying the GBN method. The GBN method provides several reasonable, but a challenging framework for a particular method by developing a scenario matrix. So, three different scenarios have been designed; in the first scenario, market forces, and technology, in the second one policies against climate change and in the third one geopolitical competitions and tensions are considered as the main drivers of the energy sector. In the end, according to the national strategic energy document, strategies to improve the energy security of Iran have been proposed in each scenario. Also in order to increase the efficiency of strategies, short-term and long-term perspectives are considered for their implementation.

Keywords